Ontario's fossil fuel growth puts climate goals out of reach, auditor general finds
By: Abdul Matin Sarfraz, Canada’s National Observer, Local Journalism Initiative
This article was originally published by Abdul Matin Sarfraz, a Local Journalism Initiative Reporter with Canada’s National Observer, on Oct 03, 2025, at 10:26.
The Ford government’s embrace of fossil fuels and car-friendly policies is driving Ontario away from its 2030 climate target, the province’s auditor general warns.
In a report published Wednesday, Auditor General Shelley Spence says the provincial government is not on track to meet its pledge to cut emissions by 30 per cent from 2005 levels by the end of the decade — a target first set in 2018.
At a press conference at Queen’s Park, Spence said Ontario is expected to fall short of this goal by at least 3.5 megatonnes.
To meet the target, emissions must be reduced by 17 megatonnes from 2023 levels. She compared this to “removing 3.7 million, or 47 per cent, of all fossil-fuelled passenger vehicles from Ontario’s roads by 2030.”
Spence said Ontario has likely overstated emission cuts in several sectors, including transportation and waste. In some cases, the province counted reductions from programs that no longer exist, such as the federal carbon tax for consumers.
Currently, the province has no emission reduction targets beyond 2030, has not finalized its climate change plan and has not issued a public progress report since 2021, despite legislated requirements, the report says.
Canada’s National Observer reached out to the province for comment but did not receive a response in time for publication.
Currently, the province has no emission reduction targets beyond 2030, has not finalized its climate change plan and has not issued a public progress report since 2021, despite legislated requirements, the report says.
However, Ontario Environment Minister Todd McCarthy told reporters that economic uncertainty caused by US tariffs has made it harder for the province to plan for long-term climate goals. He would not commit to setting targets beyond 2030 and said while the government will try to meet its 2030 target, targets are not the same as outcomes. He added that the province is focused on achievable results rather than “unrealistic objectives.”
Climate change is already contributing to more frequent floods, wildfires, ice storms and extreme heat events in Ontario, the report notes. “Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is important for the future of our province,” Spence said. “The cost of not reducing emissions far outweighs the cost of reduction. We’re already seeing the effects of climate change and the millions of dollars it is costing.”
Car-friendly policies
Transportation is the largest source of emissions and the area where government choices are making things worse, Spence said. According to the report, the Ford government’s decisions to expand highways, remove road tolls and freeze provincial fuel taxes are expected to encourage more gas-powered vehicle use. The government has also announced plans to replace some bike lanes with car lanes.
The Ford government has invested billions in road construction and highway expansion, presenting these projects as ways to reduce congestion. But several experts previously interviewed by Canada’s National Observer said these moves will have the opposite effect and jeopardize the province’s climate goals.
For example, removing tolls from the public portion of Highway 407 has already increased traffic volumes there, rather than easing congestion on Highway 401 as promised by the Ford government.
Keith Brooks, programs director at Environmental Defence, said the findings confirm Ontario is falling behind. “It’s troubling, but not surprising,” Brooks said. “This government does not take climate change seriously, and I think the auditor general’s report really lays that out once again.”
Brooks added that Ford’s highway expansions and fuel tax cuts show the province is “a fan of cars” and undermining progress by putting more vehicles on the road.
Brooks also pointed to a youth-led court case that is challenging Ontario’s weakened climate targets. Seven young activists are suing the province over its decision to scale back the 2030 emissions target. The case is now moving ahead in Ontario’s Superior Court after the Supreme Court declined to hear the government’s appeal. The lawsuit argues Ontario’s rollback violates Charter rights by exposing young people to the growing risks of climate change. Plaintiffs are asking the court to order the province to adopt stronger, science-based targets.
Waste and other weak spots
Ontario’s waste sector is another weak point. According to Statistics Canada, Ontario disposed of 10.7 million tonnes of solid waste in 2022, an increase of nearly one million tonnes since 2005.
According to the auditor general’s report, organic waste, such as food and yard material, has also grown, with more than three million tonnes sent to landfills in 2022, up 10 per cent from 2005.
The report says when biodegradable materials break down, they release methane and carbon dioxide. Food and paper products alone accounted for nearly 75 per cent of landfill-related emissions in 2023.
The report says waste now accounts for more than four per cent of Ontario’s total emissions.
Despite a 2017 commitment to ban organics from landfills, little has been done to follow through. Without stronger action, methane emissions will remain a major source of greenhouse gases.
Experts say the Ford government’s waste management policies, including recent changes to Blue Box recycling rules and the cancellation of a deposit-return system for non-alcoholic drink containers, have reduced Ontario’s ability to keep waste out of landfills.
The report also flagged Ontario’s energy sector, warning emissions will rise as demand grows.
While the Ford government’s new Energy for Generations plan leans heavily on nuclear power, delays mean Ontario will rely more on natural gas in the near term — pushing emissions higher before they fall.
Critics say the plan overlooks renewables and risks locking the province into greater dependence on fossil fuels.
Sarah Burch, professor at the University of Waterloo and executive director of the Waterloo Climate Institute, said the lack of long-term targets leaves Ontario behind, and “makes it tricky for businesses to have some certainty about the future and for people to plan.”
She dismissed the government’s explanation that tariff uncertainty justifies the lack of new targets. “In fact, … we would want more certainty when it comes to where we want our energy system to go, giving businesses and consumers some way to plan ahead.”
Burch said transparency is as important as new policies. People need to know if progress is being made and tax dollars are being spent wisely, but the province is leaving the public in the dark about its climate progress because it hasn’t released an update in years, she said.
Auditor General’s recommendations
The auditor general recommended that Ontario adopt long-term emission reduction targets beyond 2030, finalize and update its climate plan, report progress annually to the public and verify the assumptions behind its emission forecasts.
However, the Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks rejected three of these four recommendations, agreeing only to improve how it checks assumptions in its models, Spence said.
Political reaction
Opposition leaders said the report confirms what they have long argued — that the Ford government has no real plan to meet Ontario’s climate goals.
Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles said the government knew it would never reach its targets, cancelled programs and had no intention of introducing new ones. She warned that ignoring climate action will drive up costs for Ontarians, from higher insurance premiums to increased food prices linked to climate impacts on farmers.
Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said the Ford government is prioritizing fossil fuel companies over the public. “Over and over again, this government puts the profits of fossil fuel giants like Enbridge ahead of the people of Ontario,” he said.
Liberal MPP John Fraser said the report exposes mismanagement. “If climate change is important to you and you’re looking for it, you have a right to be angry that you’re not going to get it from this government,” he said.
Still, Spence says Ontario has the tools to change course if it chooses. “Ontario can meet this urgent need for climate action, as it has ample capacity to reduce emissions.”
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